A Portfolio Inspired Metric For Project Selection in Construction Management

In this paper we adopt a portfolio management approach to make project selection decisions easer in construction management. In particular, we suggest to extend value-based analysis to project selection within a Portfolio of related projects. We define a new value based indicator, “Project Value to Portfolio Value” (PV2PV) to asses the added value of a new project to the value of the firm’s actual portfolio of projects. The PV2PV indicator allows us to establish the modified ranking of the individual projects of the portfolio should a new incoming project be included in the firm’s portfolio of standing projects. The approach not only is useful for construction corporations but for some financial corporations like Spanish banks, which after the construction bubble have become “project and facility owners”

Modelado basado en agentes para el estudio de sistemas complejos

El modelado basado en agentes es una herramienta que en las dos últimas décadas está siendo cada vez más utilizada para el estudio de sistemas complejos en distintos ámbitos de las ciencias sociales y como ayuda para la toma de decisiones. Las entidades de los sistemas sociales pueden ser modeladas como agentes autónomos que interaccionan en un entorno. Estos modelos se pueden simular para analizar el comportamiento que muestra el sistema en distintos escenarios y configuraciones. En este artículo se ilustra su aplicación con varios casos, y se describen las herramientas más utilizadas actualmente, así como los retos metodológicos para su utilización en gran escalaproyectos CSD2010-00034 (CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010) y TIN2011-28335-C02-01 subvencionados por el Gobierno de España con referencias, y el proyecto GREX251-2009 subvencionado por la Junta de Castilla y León

Exploring the influence of seasonal uncertainty in project risk management

27th IPMA World CongressFor years, many research studies have focused on programming projects, assuming a deterministic environment and complete task information. However, during the project performance, schedule may be subject to uncertainty which can lead to significant modifications. This fact has led to an increasing scientific literature in the field. In this article we consider the presence of an uncertainty of seasonal type (e.g. meteorological) that affects some of the activities that comprise the project. We discuss how the project risk can be affected by such uncertainty, depending on the start date of the project. By means of Monte Carlo simulation, we compute the statistical distribution functions of project duration at the end of the project. Then, we represent the variability of the project through the so-called Project Risk Baseline. In addition, we examine various sensitivity metrics - Criticality, Cruciality, Schedule Sensitivity Index -. We use them to prioritize each one of the activities of the project depending on its start date. In the last part of the study we demonstrate the relative importance of project tasks must consider a combined version of these three sensitivity measures.the project SPPORT: “Computational Models for Strategic Project Portfolio Management”, supported by the Regional Government of Castile and Leon (Spain) with grant VA056A12-

Beyond earned value management: a graphical framework for integrated cost, schedule and risk monitoring

26th IPMA World Congress. 2012, Crete, Greece,In this paper, we propose an innovative and simple graphical framework for project control and monitoring, to integrate the dimensions of project cost and schedule with risk management, therefore extending the Earned Value methodology (EVM). EVM allows Project managers to know whether the project has overruns (over-costs and/or delays), but project managers do not know when deviations from planned values are so important that corrective actions should be taken or, in case of good performance, sources of improvement can be detected. From the concept of project planned variability, we build a graphical methodology to know when a project remains “out of control” or “within expected variability” during the project lifecycle. To this aim, we define and represent new control indexes and new cumulative buffers. Five areas in the chart represent five different possible project states. To implement this framework, project managers only need the data provided by EVM traditional analysis and Monte-Carlo simulation. We also explore the sensitivity of the methodology to control variables.Project “Computational Models for Strategic Project Portfolio Management”, supported by the Regional Government of Castile and Leon (Spain) with grant VA056A12-2

Economía artificial: métodos de inspiración social en la resolución de problemas complejos

La dimensión social de la Economía le confiere una complejidad que es muy difícil de formalizar en un conjunto de ecuaciones algebraicas. La aproximación de la Economía Experimental (EE) y la de su extensión de la Economía Artificial (EA) con modelos basados en agentes artificiales (ABM), permiten recoger parte de esa complejidad cuando el intercambio es impersonal. En este artículo analizamos desde la EA el paradigmático ejemplo de la subasta doble continua (CDA) y su dinámica social con diferentes tipos de agentes. Los resultados obtenidos con sociedades artificiales, no sólo son relevantes para explicar los mecanismos de la institución, sino que el propio mercado puede ser un vehículo para resolver problemas de gestión de la empresa y de elección y escasez de complejidad nphard. Para ilustrarlo empleamos un ejemplo basado en la aplicación de subastas combinatorias: mediante la programación basada en mercados se puede realizar la asignación de slots de recursos en problemas de gestión de carteras de proyectosMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación con referencia CSD2010-00034 (SimulPast CONSOLIDER- INGENIO 2010) y el proyecto Application of Agent-Based Computational Economics to Strategic Slot Allocation cofinanciado por EUROCONTROL- SESAR Joint Undertaking (SJU) y la Unión Europea como parte del programa SESA

Evolution of equity norms in small-world networks

The topology of interactions has been proved very influential in the results of models based on learning and evolutionary game theory. This paper is aimed at investigating the effect of structures ranging from regular ring lattices to random networks, including small-world networks, in a model focused on property distribution norms. The model considers a fixed and finite population of agents who play the Nash bargaining game repeatedly. Our results show that regular networks promote the emergence of the equity norm, while less-structured networks make possible the appearance of fractious regimes. Additionally, our analysis reveals that the speed of adoption can also be affected by the network structureSpanish MICINN Projects CSD2010-00034 SimulPast CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010 , TIN2008-06464-C03-02 and DPI2010-16920, and by the Junta de Castilla y León, References BU034A08 and GREX251-200

A framework for production planning in additive manufacturing.

Additive manufacturing (AM) introduces a set of technology-specific problems, such as the proper orientation of parts or the placement of several heterogeneous parts in the same build cycle, which are not addressed by traditional approaches to production planning and scheduling. Although these new production subproblems have been implicitly addressed by several works according to generic nesting and scheduling concepts, a literature review revealed that there is no uniformity in identifying and, thus, solving all these subproblems. For this reason, and as a result of an in-depth analysis of the existent literature on AM production planning and an analogy with classic cutting and packing typologies, the present paper offers a framework to formalise the production planning problem in AM at the operational level. This framework can be used as a reference to focus on and address these AM-related problems for efficient production planning. It is designed at the subproblem level and centres on production order processing in AM. A coding strategy is specifically developed for the framework, which is applied to a review of relevant works that propose models for the production planning of AM systems. Finally, the review results are discussed and possible extensions of the framework are proposed

Limitations and opportunities in e-platforms for the additive manufacturing market.

The expansion of additive manufacturing (AM) has led to an imbalance between supply and demand. As a result, e-platforms have emerged as an efficient means of coordinating the AM market. This work aims to review the primary references proposing e-platforms for matching and allocating AM customers’ orders to AM suppliers’ resources and determining service prices. Specifically, platforms using auctions as market mechanisms are explored, and opportunities to further exploit the potential of auctions to coordinate the singular AM market are raised.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Influencia del Riesgo Estacional en la Línea Base de Riesgos del Proyecto

[ESP] Ampliando el trabajo de investigación que los autores desarrollan sobre la incertidumbre en los proyectos, en este artículo analizaremos como influye la presencia de un riesgo estacional sobre la programación del Proyecto, en función de la fecha de comienzo del mismo. Representaremos la Línea Base de Riesgos del Proyecto para cada una de las distintas simulaciones. Observando las distintas simulaciones realizadas podremos determinar cual sería la fecha idónea de comienzo del proyecto, en función de la presencia del riesgo estacional. Finalmente, representando en nuestro gráfico de control los indicadores que surgen de la investigación (SCoI / CCoI), podremos comprobar la evolución del Proyecto en cada uno de los periodos simulados. Dependiendo del resultado obtenido en cada instante, la Dirección del Proyecto decidirá si es necesaria una acción correctiva para mantener el proyecto dentro de su variabilidad esperada o si, por el contrario, la evolución del proyecto es la prevista inicialmente.(1) ”Computational Methods for Managing Multi-project Environments”, supported by the Regional Government of Castile and Leon, with grant “ABACO:GEMA VA006A09”; (2) “Agentbased Modelling and Simulation of Complex Social Systems (SiCoSSys)”, supported by the Spanish Council for Science and Innovation, with grant TIN2008-06464-C03-02; and (3) GR251/09 supported by “Junta de Castilla y Leon Excellence Research Groups”

On the project risk baseline: Integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling

Producción CientíficaObtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more recently, financial limitations. The methods provide different viable schedules for the same project, and the solutions with the shortest duration are considered the best-known schedule for that project. However, no tools currently select which schedule best performs in project risk terms. To bridge this gap, this paper aims to propose a method for selecting the project schedule with the highest probability of meeting the deadline of several alternative schedules with the same duration. To do so, we propose integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling by quantifying the risk of several execution alternatives for the same project. The proposed method, tested with a well-known repository for schedule benchmarking, can be applied to any project type to help managers to select the project schedules from several alternatives with the same duration, but the lowest risk